INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PURE & APPLIED BIOSCIENCE
ISSN : 2320-7051
International Journal of Pure & Applied Bioscience (IJPAB)
Year : 2018, Volume : 6, Issue : 2
First page : (1372) Last page : (1375)
Article doi: : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.6265
Seasonal Arima Model to Forecast Rainfall for Three Mandalas of Telangana State
K. Kiran Prakash*, S. K. Nafeez Umar1, G. Ramesh2, S. Hyama Jyothi3 and M. Venkataramulu4
*Department of Statistics and Mathematics, Advanced Post Graduation Centre, Lam, Guntur
Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University, Lam, Guntur. A.P.
1Department of Statistics and Mathematics, Agricultural College, Bapatla, ANGRAU, A.P.
2Department of Statistics and Mathematics, Agricultural College, Rajamahendravaram, ANGRAU, A.P.
3Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural College, Rajamahendravaram, ANGRAU, A.P.
4AI&CC, Lam, ANGRAU, A.P.
*Corresponding Author E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
Received: 5.02.2018 | Revised: 14.03.2018 | Accepted: 20.03.2018
The prediction of rainfall on monthly and seasonal timescale is not only scientifically challenging but is also implement for planning and devising original strategies. Various research groups attempt to predict rainfall on a seasonal time scale using different techniques. This paper describes the Box-Jenkins time series Seasonal ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) approach for prediction of rainfall on monthly scale. Seasonal ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,1,0) for rainfall (m.m) was identified the best model to forecast rainfall for Aswaraopet and Vemsoor mandals and Seasonal ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,0,1) was identified for Sathupally mandal for next one year with confidence level of 95 percent by analyzing 27 years data(1990-2017).Previous data is used to formulate the seasonal ARIMA model and in determination of model parameters. The preference evaluation of the adopted models are carried out on the basis of correlation coefficient (R2) and Mean absolute percentage error. The study conducted at three mandals Aswaraopet, Sathupally and Vemsoor of Telangana State (India).The result indicate that the Seasonal ARIMA model provide consistent and satisfactory prediction for rainfall parameters on monthly scale.Key words: ARIMA, Rainfall, Auto correlation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation function (PACF), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
Full Text : PDF; Journal doi : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782
Cite this article: Prakash, K.K., Umar, S.K.N., Ramesh, G., Jyothi, S.H. and Venkataramulu, M., Seasonal Arima Model to Forecast Rainfall for Three Mandalas of Telangana State, Int. J. Pure App. Biosci.6(2): 1372-1375 (2018). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.6265