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International Journal of Pure & Applied Bioscience (IJPAB)
Year : 2018, Volume : 6, Issue : 6
First page : (1121) Last page : (1126)
Article doi: : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.7148

Arima Model for Forecasting Sunflower Production in India

B. Ramana Murthy¹*, Sk. Nafeez Umar² and O. Hari Babu³

¹Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics and Computer Applications,
Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University, S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh
²Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics and Computer Applications,
ANGRAU, Agricultural College, Bapatla, Andhra Pradesh
³Associate Professor, Spirits College of MCA and MBA, Kadapa (Dt), Andhra Pradesh
*Corresponding Author E-mail: ramanastats@gmail.com
Received: 6.11.2018 | Revised: 14.12.201  | Accepted: 19.12.2018  

 ABSTRACT

The present research study was carried out to identify the appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for forecasting sunflower production in India. The validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques R2, RMSE, and MAPE. ARIMA (4, 1, 4) model was found to be a best fitted model to forecast sunflower production in India for further five years. The important assumption of randomness of residuals was tested using one sample run test. The forecasted results showed for production of sunflower in India for the year 2017-18 to 2021-22 to be 220, 150, 114, 121 and 141 thousand tonnes respectively. And also it is showed downward and upward trend on production of sunflower in India for forecasted years.

Key words:  Sunflower, R2, RMSE, MAPE and ARIMA.

Full Text : PDF; Journal doi : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782

Cite this article: Murthy, B.R., Umar, S.N. and Hari Babu, O., Arima Model for Forecasting Sunflower Production in India, Int. J. Pure App. Biosci.6(6): 1121-1126 (2018). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.7148