INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PURE & APPLIED BIOSCIENCE

ISSN : 2320-7051

  • No. 772, Basant Vihar, Kota

    Rajasthan-324009 India

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International Journal of Pure & Applied Bioscience (IJPAB)
Year : 2019, Volume : 7, Issue : 1
First page : (333) Last page : (341)
Article doi: : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.7133

Price Forecasting of Cluster Bean using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model: Case of Hanumangarh of Rajasthan in India

Vijay Kumar Baldodiya1* and P. K. Awasthi2

1Ph.D. Scholar, 2Professor,
Department of Agricultural Economics & F. M. College of Agriculture, JNKVV, Jabalpur
*Corresponding Author E-mail: vj071088@gmail.com
Received: 13.12.2018  |  Revised: 20.01.2019   |  Accepted: 27.01.2019  

 

 ABSTRACT

The price behaviour of a commodity plays crucial role in farm level crop production planning. In this paper, an attempt has been made to forecast Cluster bean price using statistical time-series modelling techniques- Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models. The forecasting performance of these models has been evaluated and compared by using common criteria such as: mean absolute percentage error, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Schwarz's Bayesian Information criterion (SBC) and Theil U Statistics. The data used in this study include monthly wholesale price of cluster bean from January 2004 to December 2017. Among all the models tried, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model (4, 1, 4) was best fit with least AIC (-232.14), SBC (-200.96) and MAPE (8.04). ARIMA (4, 1, 4) model is constructed based on autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation. Finally, forecasts were made based on the model developed. On validation of the forecasts from these models, ARIMA (4, 1, 4) model performed better than the others for cluster bean in Hanumangarh market. Forecasted price of cluster bean shows that its market prices would be ruling in the range of Rs 3899 to Rs 4793 per quintal during January 2018 to December 2018. Thus, ARIMA model can be used to predict the future price of cluster bean in Hanumangarh market of Rajasthan.

Key words: Cluster Bean, Crop, Income, Agricultural export

Full Text : PDF; Journal doi : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782

Cite this article: Baldodiya, V.K. and Awasthi, P.K., Price Forecasting of Cluster Bean using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model: Case of Hanumangarh of Rajasthan in India, Int. J. Pure App. Biosci.7(1): 333-341 (2019). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.7133




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