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Indian Journal of Pure & Applied Biosciences (IJPAB)
Year : 2020, Volume : 8, Issue : 2
First page : (64) Last page : (68)
Article doi: : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2582-2845.7973

Validation of Arima Model on Production of Papaya in India

B. Ramana Murthy^1*, G. Mohan Naidu², C. Tamilselvi³ and N. Priyanka Evangilin^4
1Assistant Professor, ²Professor and Head, ^3,4M.Sc., Agricultural Statistics
Department of Statistics and Computer Applications,
Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University, S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupati
*Corresponding Author E-mail: ramanastats@gmail.com
Received: 29.01.2020  |  Revised: 26.02.2020   |  Accepted: 2.03.2020 

 ABSTRACT

The present study was carried out to validate the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model on production of papaya in India. In this study, we used secondary data for the period from 1950-51 to 2017-18. The ARIMA (p, d, q) models were fitted for the period from 1950-51 to 2009-10 and the remaining periods i.e. 2010-2018 were used for validation of the ARIMA model. The validity of the models were tested by using standard statistical criterias (i.e., R2, RMSE and MAPE). Among all the ARIMA (p, d, q) models, ARIMA (3, 1, 4) was found to be best fitted model for validation and forecast the future values. The forecasted values of papaya production from 2010-11 to 2017-18 were approximately similar to original values.

Key words: Papaya, ARIMA, R2, RMSE and MAPE.

Full Text : PDF; Journal doi : http://dx.doi.org/10.18782

Cite this article: Ramana Murthy, B., Mohan Naidu, G., Tamilselvi, C., & Evangilin, N.P. (2020). Validation of Arima Model on Production of Papaya in India, Ind. J. Pure App. Biosci. 8(2), 64-68. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.18782/2582-2845.7973